TrendCharts

Timing is Everything

Were you LONG or SHORT the equity markets on September 26, 2008, a few days before the biggest stock market meltdown in a century?

Our TrendCharts Model was SHORT the SP500 as of September 8, 2008 and remained SHORT until January 5, 2009 for a gain of 26.65% during that period.

Imagine how amazing it would have felt to have been SHORT the markets during those tumultuous times?

After the "generational low" of 666.79 set on the SP500 on March 6, 2009, TrendCharts was LONG the SP500 in four separate trades from April 24, 2009 to April 30, 2010 for a cumulative gain of 19.85%.

After the melt downs we saw in October/November 2008 and March 2009 it would have been extremely difficult to work up the courage to trust the markets again and jump back in - but TrendCharts would have provided that courage.

Since December 28, 2007 our TrendCharts Trade Signals on the SP500 have generated an annualized compounded rate of return of 28.55%.

SP500 - Current Trade

What about now? Are you LONG or SHORT the SP500, or are you sitting in CASH?

The TrendCharts Trend turned LONG for the SP500 on May 3, 2013.

Our last trade on the SP500 was a LONG trade that was closed on April 12, 2013 for a gain of 0.45%. Our previous trade was also a LONG trade that was closed out on February 25, 2013 for a gain of 4.65%.

Weekly Wrap - May 17, 2013

The SP500 was up 2.07% to 1,667 this week. The verdict is in: markets want to go higher. With the SP500 closing above the 1,600 level for a third consecutive week we may have just witnessed the beginning a new secular bull market for US equities. The index had been in a consolidation phase since April 11, as traders were not sure which way the markets would break. They know now: UP.                              

For a summary of our TrendCharts Signal price levels for the Nasdaq, the TSX, the German DAX and Emerging Markets see our complete Weekly Wrap.

SP500 - TrendCharts Trade Signals

Below is a summary of all the trades generated by TrendCharts on the SP500 (both LONG and SHORT, non-leveraged) since December 28, 2007.

Why start on December 28, 2007? If you built a house and it survived a Category 5 Hurricane, would you worry about it surviving a Category 1 Hurricane? Over the last four years the equity markets have been hit with a series of Category 5 Hurricanes, and TrendCharts managed to survive the repeated onslaughts.

If you had gone LONG the SP500 on December 28, 2007 (when the Great Financial Crisis was still a speck in the eye of the sub-prime mortgage underwriters) you would have bought the index at 1,478.49.

As of February 1, 2013 the SP500 is up 2.30% since then; that's four long years of waiting for breakeven.

TrendCharts trade signals on the SP500 over that same time period generated an annualized compounded rate of return of 28.55%.

Since December 28, 2007 TrendCharts has generated 15 winning trades and 5 losing trades on the SP500 Index, for a trade success ratio of 75%.

Here they are:

                                      TrendCharts SPY Trades